Welcome to the first Weekend Reads post of 2021. Who knows what the year 2021 has in store for us? In January of 2020 we didn’t have a clue. It’s human nature to think that we at least have some sense of where things are going. In early 2021 we are planning our escape from the grip of the pandemic. Many prognosticators are charting that course. And there is nothing wrong with predictions if they stimulate ideas and critical thinking and open the mind to the possibilities.
I really like this quote from Professor Scott Galloway …
The value of a prediction is not accuracy (though it is better to be right than wrong), but the reasoning and conversation that the prediction catalyzes.
That’s from this post … 2021 predictions and person of the year.
Also from that post and what we learned from 2020 …
And on some Professor Galloway predictions for 2021.
- Airbnb Hits $200/share and Gets Into Short-Term Office Space
- Walmart Goes Deeper into Healthcare via Acquisition
- Bitcoin Surpasses $50,000
- Robinhood Is the New Menace
- 2021 is less terrible
That’s a good read. And the professor is a good follow.
The big surprises for 2021.
On Forbes, top retail predictions for 2021.
Millennials will be scarred by the pandemic, which came after they were among the hardest hit by the 2008 financial crisis … many Millennials will defect to the suburbs at an even faster rate than most people anticipated, where there is more freedom and space.
On The Balance 10 economic predictions for 2021.
And on the investment front, have a read of the 2021 global outlook from BlackRock – some of the smartest gals and guys in the room.
We have entered a new investment order. The Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated profound shifts in how economies and societies operate across four dimensions: sustainability, inequality, geopolitics and the joint macro policy revolution. We believe this calls for a fundamental rethink of investment portfolios – starting now.– BlackRock
And from David Rosenberg.
So what lies ahead for the coming year? A very rough first quarter for the economy. And then a better second quarter. And quite likely boom-like conditions in the second half of the year as substantial amounts of pent-up demand get released. Travelling, mall browsing, bar hopping, eating out – and dare I say, socializing – will be all the rage. It is called “pent-up demand” for a reason. This will be the single dominating force driving the economy in 2021, barring any setbacks (such as not enough of a vaccine take-up to achieve the holy grail of herd immunity).
I had addressed that vaccine asterisk thought in yesterday’s post …
At the recent rate of vaccination we should be able to vaccinate 70% of Canadians by 2034. We might change that curve when the government agencies get out of their own way and call on the private sector and Shopper’s Drug Mart and other pharmacies for help. We need to get on with these jabs in arms. That is the wild card for 2021.
Vaccines don’t end pandemics, vaccinations end pandemics.
More Weekend Reads.
For Canadian stock investors here’s some wonderful research from Dividend Growth Investing and Retirement. 3 reasons to invest in stocks with 10+ year dividend growth streaks. From that post –
At the end of 2007, before the 2008/2009 Global Financial Crisis, there were 24 Canadian stocks with dividend growth streaks of 10+ years. Of these 24, none cut their dividend during the Global Financial Crisis.
That post then goes on to look at the performance of dividend growth stocks in the correction in 2020.
The Sunday Investor offers a look at his personal portfolio and some thoughts on the year ahead.
Banker on Wheels offers a wonderful post that charts the sector returns by year for the decade. You’ll also see some 10 year and 20 year comparisons. Amazing post, as always.
FiPhysician also delivers some incredible charts on assets and risk, covering the last 20 years.
On findependence hub lessons learned in 2020.
On MoneyMaaster Jordan offers his December portfolio update and year in review.
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