Who knew that World War 3 (WWIII) would be against a virus that we cannot see? That would be almost no one. But that is the case. That is the reality. Like the Allies in WWII we are fighting a war on two fronts. We are fighting COVID-19 and we are fighting the economic war that is the fallout from the COVID-19 battle. In order to fight the virus, we have to kill the economy. It’s a necessary self-inflicted wound. Fighting COVID-19 is World War 3.
This would be the first time in a long time that the world has a common enemy. But thanks to technology and communication channels it’s the first time that we can all work together to fight a common enemy. We can fight together.
Morgan Housel is no stranger to Cut The Crap Investing Weekend Reads. From Mr. Housel you’ll find some of the most thoughtful and articulate reads.
Here’s the link to the Common Enemies post.
Mr. Housel begins with a quote from FDR, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, who was the US President for most of World War II.
I have read extensively on the actions of FDR and Winston Churchill, especially their war actions and leadership. Canadian Conrad Black penned the wonderful Champion of Freedom. That details how FDR and Churchill literally saved the free world. Perhaps you can order that book or an electronic version, to help you pass some time as you self-isolate.
We are going to need the never surrender, do-what-it takes, let’s pull together spirit of these men and other leaders of the past. We’re still looking for those strong leaders of today.
In the attempt to frame this battle …
We know how to win a war.
There is no playbook on how to fight this virus. It is unique. It is novel. But we know how to apply the strategies of war. We know what it takes to win a war. We know the history of human behaviour.
I do not want to ‘give away’ too much from the post. Once again FDR sets the conditions.
We are now in this war. We are all in it, all the way. Every single man, woman, and child is a partner in the most tremendous undertaking of our American history. We must share together the bad news and the good news, the defeats and the victories.
Franklin Delano Roosevelt, on the US entry into WW11
Enjoy that read. Of course many Americans do not know yet, that they are at war. They are not mobilized. They are not fighting together. Many or most are unaware that this current undertaking may be the most tremendous in American history.
Coronavirus: The hammer and the dance from Tomas Pueyo suggests that if the US were to simply let COVID-19 run its course with very little or even modest isolation measures, the virus could kill 10 times more Americans compared to World War 2.
That is an epic piece. It outlines the debate on do nothing or little to fight COVID-19 in the attempt to limit economic destruction vs shutting down much of the global economy.
Yes that’s a projection of 10,000,000 dead. There’s the add-on factor as well as the healthcare system would be so overwhelmed that most of those with other serious illnesses would not be treated. That’s why we hear of military medical ships being moved to New York and elsewhere. That’s why, like in wartime, industries are re-tooling to make medical supplies and equipment. In the 1940’s they made guns and bombs, planes and tanks.
There’s only one solution.
We can and will all come to our own conclusion, but it appears that the isolate and keep your distance is the right wartime message.
We need the right message in consistent fashion.
And of course careless actions costs lives. We need to reduce the stress on hospitals.
The dotted red line is the ability of the US to treat those who are very sick. The dark blue line is essentially and sadly the crest above the red line – and represents those who would likely die.
The good news!
The good new is that we know how other countries have reversed the curve. In Canada of course we are all working to plank the curve. Here’s how Tomas frames success and the timing.
Again COVID-19 is World War 3, that article lays out the battle plan and odds of success. It’s a must read. Please share that link along with this post. It needs to go viral.
And certainly in Canada and other parts of the world have much work to do. We share the same conditions and the same war.
More Weekend Reads.
There are many good and timely reads on findependencehub including It’s too late to re-evaluate your risk tolerance from Michael J. Wiener. I would somewhat disagree. That said a better time was on Feb. 1 when I suggested on how investors might prepare for the coronavirus outbreak.
Of course at the time I did not know that COVID-19 is World War 3.
On myownadvisor Mark Seed offers how to get through a market crash – and benefit from it.
While these are scary times I had penned on that yesterday – do you have a bear market investment plan. We all need our personal battle plan on the investment front as well.
Rob at passivecanadianincome is still alive and buying.
Fritz at theretirementmanifesto offers the benefits of a bear market.
On MoneySense from Bryan Borzykowski – Understanding the chatter around negative interest rates.
And Robb Engen of Boomer and Echo decides what to do with his company pension. As you may know Robb left his full time job to concentrate on his blog and advisory businesses. Alexandra Macqueen laid out the options.
On Cut The Crap Investing Alexandra offered the most popular post of the last few months. Please have a read of … Defined benefit pension planning. Bad advice could cost you your retirement.
Thanks for reading. We’ll see you in the comment section. Offer your thoughts on COVID-19 is World War 3, and the other posts mentioned above.
Be safe. Isolate and keep your distance.
This is war. And yes, we’ll win eventually. I believe in the human spirit.
Dale
