- VCIP – potential decline of 5-10%
- VCNS – potential decline of 10-20%
- VBAL – potential decline of 15%, 20%, 30%
In February 2018 Vanguard Canada launched all-in-one complete Balanced Portfolios that you can purchase by entering one ticker symbol. For example, in your discount brokerage account you would enter the symbol VBAL to get a complete globally diversified Balanced Portfolio. The Portfolio is 60% Canadian, US and International stocks with 40% of those shock absorbers known as bonds. These portfolios are also rebalanced on a regular schedule to keep the risks in check. The fee for the Vanguard asset allocation portfolios is .22%. Yes these portfolios are a game changer. The one ticket solutions are the most cost-effective managed portfolios available in Canada. This should be the final dagger in the heart of the high fee mutual fund industry. iShares also offers one ticket solutions. Here’s the Findependence Hub review Game changer? Vanguard Launches 3 New Asset Allocation ETFs. Here’s the stock to bond mix for the 3 portfolios that were launched in February of 2018. Happy Birthday! The one tickets are turning 1. And speaking of the 1’s the portfolios have already reached $1 Billion in assets. They are a hit with Canadians. And recently Vanguard Unveiled 2 more Asset Allocation ETFs. In good Canadian fashion the Vanguard One Ticket team now has 5 players, enough for a full hockey lineup (not including the goalie of course). And just like hockey, there are players that are more aggressive and players that are more defensive in nature. The aggressive portfolios have more stocks. The defensive portfolios have more bonds. How Do You Know What Portfolio To Select? We are now down to the most important ‘part of it all’. The Portfolios do not come with an owner’s manual for when and how to use them. Matching the appropriate portfolio to your goals and risk tolerance level and time horizon is paramount. As Ford used to say “It’s Job 1”. We have to invest within our risk tolerance level. That means, we have to be comfortable with the amount that the portfolio could decline in value. Are you comfortable with a portfolio that could decline by 5% in a major correction, 10%, 20%, 30%, 40% or 50%? Remember those bonds work like shock absorbers to soften the blow and smooth out the ride during periods when the stock markets tank. And tank they can; Canadian and US and International markets have declined by some 50% or more twice in the last 20 years. There were major corrections in 2000-2002 and in 2008-2009. There have been some very ‘minor’ corrections over the last 10 years. Here’s an example of those shock absorbers at work. Courtesy of the portfolio modelling tools at portfoliovisualizer.com (where I spend way too much time) here’s a look at an all-stock portfolio vs a 50/50 stock to bond portfolio. Dividends are reinvested. The portfolios are rebalanced on an annual schedule. Portfolio 1 is all stocks – Canada, US and International. Portfolio 2 is 50% stocks and 50% Canadian bonds. The stock portfolio fell by some 50% (drawdown). The conservative portfolio was ‘only’ down by some 24%. We see that by the end of 2011 the more conservative portfolio is already in positive territory while the all-stock portfolio is still fighting its way back to the break even point. The portfolio recovery period is important, your time horizon is important. That’s why we don’t invest shorter term monies in all-stock or stock-heavy portfolios. To get you in the right portfolio, we’re largely trying to match the portfolio mix to your time horizon and comfort level for portfolio decline. You Need a 4-5 Year Time Horizon to Even Consider Investing. Yup. If you have monies that you need in 3 years or less, off to the bank you go for a high interest savings account or GICs. You might invest in Conservative Portfolios if you a time horizon of 4-5 years or more. In the land of the Vanguard Portfolios that would mean that the Vanguard Conservative Income Portfolio, the Vanguard Conservative Portfolio and the Vanguard Balanced Portfolio might be suitable if you check that box for your risk tolerance level. Time Horizon of 4-5 years or more. Stock-heavy portfolios typically take much longer to recover after a major market correction. In fact, it could take several years for a Balanced Growth or All-Equity Portfolio to get back to even Steven after a major correction. That’s why it’s suggested that you have at least 6-9 years or more to invest in a portfolio that would be 70%, 80%, 90% or 100% in stocks. And there’s no guarantee that you’ll make money in any of these asset allocations over a 6-9 year period. Investing involves risks, we don’t know the future. That said market history suggests that if you invest in a sensible well-balanced portfolio and keep your fees low, there’s a high probability of positive returns. Time Horizon of 6-9 Years or More. Personally, I would only invest in an All-Equity Portfolio if I had a time horizon of 10 years or more. Once again you would need to have a High Risk Tolerance Level to invest in these Growth Portfolios. You would have to be able to withstand a 40-50% portfolio decline. If we go back to that 2008-2009 correction adding 20% bonds to a portfolio would have turned that 50% drawdown into a 40% drawdown. And once again, we don’t know the future. Major corrections could be less than that 50% threshold or more than that 50% haircut range. The Potential Declines of the More Conservative Portfolios.