Now I’m certainly not suggesting that you should turn into a ‘trader’. Those are the folks who are making the markets convulse like they’re in an electric chair. Apologies for the gruesome analogy. But it is ugly. Because you are investing on a regular schedule, you need to place your trades. You don’t want to get caught in the whipsaw battle between these traders and short term speculators. Here’s how you trade ETFs in volatile markets.
And as I stated yesterday if you have a sensible investment plan you should be placing trades in these volatile times. I penned that the current market conditions might present incredible opportunity.
Is this an incredible investment opportunity, or what?
I’m going with Yes. That’s what market history says.
So, if you have a sensible plan in the accumulation stage you will be adding monies on a regular schedule. You are investing within your risk tolerance level, and you have the necessary time horizon.
You might also be rebalancing your portfolio. Over the last few months and year, stocks have been crushed, bonds are holding up. Even by way of regular rebalancing you can go buy those stocks as they go ‘on sale’.
Here’s the recent 3 month performance. That’s the core Canadian bond universe in black and the TSX Composite in blue. Bonds are up slightly, Canadian stocks fell by some 25%. The US Treasuries that I hold are up ‘way more’.
In order to rebalance you would need to sell, and you would need to buy. Of course, it’s also possible that you can take care of some of the rebalancing needs by way of adding new monies. As always ensure that you understand any tax consequences of rebalancing in taxable accounts.
Wash your hands and use limit orders.
Someone had posted this witty bit on Twitter. I can’t remember who that was, so I’ll just take credit for it. Yes in these uncertain times, make sure you protect yourself by washing your hands and placing limit orders. What a limit order means is that you will set the price at which you will buy and sell. You will know what you’re getting, if your trade is executed.
BMO recently circulated a PDF with some useful tips.
I had gone over some of those tips in this post, how to place buy and sell orders for your ETFs. In that post I show some screens so that you can view ‘what it looks like’. It’s not a difficult process but I know it can be scary for investors who have not placed orders, or are relatively new at the self-directed game. If you have any questions or concerns feel free to use that contact form.
I’ve recently added some new monies to my wife’s accounts. I’ve also executed some rebalancing in my personal RRSP account. I simply placed limit orders at the ask. All trades were filled within milliseconds. That said prices can move quickly, the whole range of bid and ask can move quickly. If you stare too long it might slip away from you.
ETF liquidity and the making of ETFs.
ETFs trade like stocks, but they are not priced like stocks.
Thanks to our friends at BMO ETFs.
What’s up and down with bonds?
Many readers had questions about the recent bond ‘mispricing’. I’ll be back soon with a dedicated post on that. There can be concerns that the bond market is not liquid enough to handle all of the ETF trades in volatile times. There were issues this week. It appears to be more of a problem of the bond market freezing up. Price discovery was made more than difficult. Bond ETFs continued to trade.
Again, I’ll be back with a deeper dive.
If you have any questions on how to trade ETFs in volatile markets please use that contact form.
Weekend Reads and Podcasts.
On findependencehub Tyler Mordy of Forstrong Global Asset Management asks is this 2008 all over again? Tyler reminds us that this is no time to panic.
Chrissy at eatsleepbreathefi suggests that ‘the coronavirus is a bigger deal than I thought. There are some very useful and relevant links in that post.
In Mark Seed’s dividend update he reminds us that the growing income stream helps him stay invested. You should follow Mark’s journey to early retirement and how he navigates these troubled waters.
On that dividend front Bob at Tawcan offers his dividend update. Markets go one way, divs go the other way.
Here’s 10 weekend reads courtesy of Barry Ritholtz at The Big Picture.
Let’s head across the pond for weekend reads at The Evidence Based Investor.
Fritz at Retirement Manifesto writes on the benefits of a Bear Market. I like that Fritz has an equity glide strategy to move monies into stocks as the markets fall.
Don’t fall into The Behaviour Gap.
As per Carl Richards of The Behaviour Gap, we don’t want to do this.
Stick to your plan, or if you can, be greedy when others are fearful as per a certain and very famous investor.
And this has to be said. Never mind how to trade ETFs in a volatile markets, share this post due to this. There is no toilet paper shortage. There is a toilet paper hoarding problem. Holy crap folks. Cut it out, save me some.
Be prepared. A recession is likely. And this might take a while.
The Joe Rogan Experience podcast reminds us that COVID-19 is perhaps just getting warmed up.
I’ve been using worldometer to keep track of COVID-19, and I’ll read the work of epidemiologists over politicians and journalists.
Be safe. Be aware and prepared. On the investment front, execute your simple plan.
Have a great weekend. Don’t forget to follow this blog and share this post.
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Dale
David
Thank you once again Dale for the great work you are doing. I came through the “repricing” of the market with only minor bruises and slight dizziness. I went into it with a fairly conservative position in fixed income of just over 50% in my retirement account. In other accounts I take a bit more risk, 30% to 40% bonds (ETFs is all I do). At first, I was congratulating myself on my investment acumen as I watched my bonds soar. At last my sleepy bonds were doing their job: negative correlation with stocks. Then my pride turned to panic (not really), or should I say dismay, when the next day they fell out of bed. I couldn’t believe what I was seeing on my screen. My long-term bonds, iShares XLB, were down about 10%. I was dumbfounded. I tried to come up with an explanation. Was it just because in a panic correlations go to one? Were institutional investors rushing to cash? Was it the Canadian dollar? I noticed that my bond ETFs were trading at a discount to their NAV. They recovered a bit on Friday. It will be interesting to see what happens on Monday. I would love to see an article on this mispricing event. When my bonds were up, I did sell a bit and I bought some more Canadian equities. Then they fell still further! Oh well. My dividend ETFs were the hardest hit. They are certainly not bond proxies.
Dale Roberts
Hi David, yes article or two on those events to follow. It is surprising. Folks are selling most everything on certain days. IMHO we need to stick to our plans. We certainly need to be prepared for the wild volatility and markets that don’t seem to make sense many days.
We are in a unique environment to say the least. Today should be crazy as well.
Thanks as always. Again, I’m digging into the bond stuff. We’ll see what happens with that US rate cut announcement. Yikes. 🙂
Dale
Scott Young
Ditto all the above, with Davids comments, exactly ditto in every regard in fact. I was absolutely counting on the bond component (ZAG) to at least hold steady if not make a few dollars. Thursdays dive was shocking and I still can’t understand what happened!? Fridays slight recovery helped as David mentions above, but my 10 year US treasury (ZTL) sold off yesterday which nullified that slight recovery. Also distressed over the market matching drop in dividend etfs, so much for having a lower beta than the over all market. I am starting to think CSAV at 2 points and a bit and zero volatility is the way forward…
Dale Roberts
Hi Scott, I will post on this. The ETFs did their job and kept trading and trying to price. It’s the bond markets that have been having issues and even having liquidity issues. Folks have been selling most anything – even the stuff that’s help up well enough. I think it will all come out in the wash, eventually as my Mom would say. There is a lot of short term noise and gyrations in most every asset.
US Treasuries have been performing well over the last few months and year over year.
Div ETFs will not necessarily hold up better in price, but if you focus on the income, that can help the cause. At least you can take the stock prices out of the equation. And of course the dividends can come under pressure as well. Most would not expect dividend growth rates to be sustainable. They could also flat line or face cuts. Quality will be King.
We need to stick to our plan. We certainly all need to assess our tolerance for risk.
Bow @ Bankeronwheels.com
Hi Dale –
Few thoughts for your readers that are investing in Bond ETFs should they be concerned whether Fixed Income Index Funds are safe:
https://bankeronwheels.com/are-bond-etfs-safe-fed-smccf-lqd-vcit-vchs-hygjnk/
Best,
Raph
Dale Roberts
Thanks, I’ll have a read.