While Donald Trump is quick to give the thumbs up sign, the markets returned the gesture with a big thumbs down. U.S. stock markets are down smartly in the first quarter of 2025. Meanwhile International stocks are the new kid in town in 2025. Money is experiencing a mass emigration. International developed market stocks are up 10% in 2025. Even Canadian stocks are positive (with dividend payment) in 2025 with Canada under economic assault from the South. I have penned that we should pay no attention to who occupies The White House, but the Trump administration is hard to ignore. His ‘strategy’ is pure chaos, and the plan is to put an end to the economic era of globalization. The markets give Trump a thumbs down on the Sunday Reads.
Here’s the first quarter equity market scorecard, in Canadian Dollars.
- S&P 500 ⬇️ 5.2%
- Nasdaq 100 ⬇️ 8.4%
- International⬆️ 8.2%
- Emerging markets ⬆️ 4.2%
- TSX Composite ⬇️ 0.6%
Expensive growth stocks
Growth stocks and tech are getting hit the hardest …
From its recent peak the Nasdaq 100 is in correction territory down 12. 5%. They call it a bear market when we’re down 20%. If Trump follows through with a global tariff war it’s likely a safe bet that we’ll move into a bear market for the NAS 100 and the S&P 500. Other markets to follow such as Canada and well, most everyone.
Trumpenomics had a bad week
And this past week Trump threatened global tariff economic destruction again.
S&P 500 down 2.6%, NAS 100 down 3.9%.
Defensives mostly did their thing: U.S. consumer staples up 1.4% Canadian staples up 1.2% Utilities down 0.6% Healthcare down 1.3% Bonds up modestly. Gold up 1.8%
Americans are not convinced
Americans are also nervous, U.S. consumer confidence is at global pandemic levels …
This is all good in my books. Bad news is good news. As I recently penned for Seeking Alpha in Defensive Stocks For An Unpredictable Trump Regime.
My take on the global tariff war concept is …
The bad news is a global tariff war spells economic destruction.
The good news is a global tariff war spells economic destruction.
Essentially, it can’t happen, I think and hope. The markets will push back and so will voters if the economy continues to weaken, and we see a spike in inflation.
Check out the GIC rates at EQ Bank
My take on this post was that Trump kissed Carney’s Canadian ass …
Speaking of kisses, maybe we’ll all kiss and make up? 😉 Perhaps, like Canadians Trump just didn’t like Trudeau?
In the accumulation stage? Keep on keepin’ on
If you’re in the accumulation stage please ignore all of the above. You should know to ignore everything and stick to your investment plan like Gorilla glue. If you have a very large portfolio, there’s Orange Gorrilla Tape.
Keep adding on a regular schedule. Invest within your risk tolerance level. There will come a time when you pay more attention to risk perhaps – within several years of the retirement start date when you’re in …
Retirees should have already been prepared for a global pandemic, an asteroid strike, financial crisis or a President of the United States who looks to rewire the global economic and geopolitical map.
Cut The Crap Investing readers (retirees and near retirees) know that we can manage risk with bonds (long and short), gold, and defensive equities. We can layer in some added inflation protection with an all-in-one inflation fighter such as the Purpose Real Asset ETF, PRA -T.
In 2025 …
- Gold ⬆️ 15.5%
- Cash ⬆️ 1.0%
- Bonds ⬆️ 1.5%
- U.S. Bonds ⬆️ 2.5%
- U.S. XDU-T ⬆️ 3.5%
- CAD Staples ⬆️ 1.2%
- CAD Utilities ⬆️ 1.5%
- PRA-T ⬆️ 4.0%
Defensives south of the border
- Consumer staples ⬆️ 3.2%
- Utilities ⬆️ 3.4%
- Healthcare ⬆️ 5.5%
My preferred strategy in retirement or in the retirement risk zone is to combine defensive equities with bonds , cash and gold. I’ve penned on that approach extensively for many years on Seeking Alph and on this blog. It is a topic that is continually explored in our Retirement Club. A wonderful place where we make sure we’re doing retirement right.
It’s a series of monthy Zoom presentations, newsletters and it includes a private online community where we learn, share and chat. We’re just in the process of starting a new group – Retirement Club Tw0. A few spots remain. Send me a note (use the Contact Dale button) if you’d like some information or to book your deck chair. 🙂
This week on our Zoom call the creator of the very good retirement cashflow calculator mayretire.com took the group through a retirement cash flow scenario. When complete we’ll have the most complete set of reviews for retirement calculators in Canada.
One more trading day left in the March
On Monday you’ll be able to know what side of the tariff war Trump woke up on, by the movement of the markets.
- Tariff war off ⬆️
- Tariff war on ⬇️
Or …
The Sunday Reads
Check out the dividends received and the news on his portfolio at Dividend Hawk. You’ll also find Hawk’s favourite Seeking Alpha reads of the week.
Kyle at Million Dollar Journey looks at rebalancing the portfolio.
Marc at Loonies and Sense has developed a longevity prediction tool. He calls it the Time of your life app. How much do you have left?
Cycle throught a great mix of reads and podcasts at Banker on Wheels. Included in the mix from Morningstar – The best investments to own during a recession. What’s more than interesting from that report, is that Quality has bested Low Volatility in some of the major market corrections.
And – More on gold and inflation.
At Findependence Hub, is technology making markets less efficient?
At stocktrades Dan separates the wheat from the chaff with a few Canadian stocks.
Bob at Tawcan offers his dividend and portfolio report – February update.
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OUR CASHBACK CREDIT CARD
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The Tangerine Cash Back Credit Card
For February we received $43.89 in cash. You can select 3 categories for 2% cash back. The rest pays at 0.50%. That’s one of our lowest spending levels of the last several years. Our fuel bill is way down and so is our grocery bill.
That cash went into my TFSA account to buy some CBIL.TO and VDY.TO.
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Good stuff — I’m in!
If there’s supposed to be a lot of financial pain in our three portfolios, global RRIF’s, and TFSA’s and far larger all-Canadian equity non-registered, so far, YTD, I’m not feeling it. The 1987 crash, the tech bubble deflating in the early 2000’s, and the financial crisis from 2008 through early 2009 were all far, far worse, in my opinion. My wife and I are still financial survivor’s though.
I wasn’t investing then, but I was in my late teens and then through my twenties and early thirties when we had stagflation in the late 60’s through the early 80’s. So I know what it was like.
The sun always eventually shines through.
Risk is risk. We have to be prepared for anything. I’d suggest Trump risk is nothing near as bad as the financial crisis.
Trump has to quit it eventually. If he doesn’t we’ll still survive. Diversification is key, as always.