This past week was all about central bankers and their attempts take on inflation. Tiff Macklem and Jerome Powell were both in the spotlight as they made announcements and rate move decisions. With inflation at 30 year highs on both sides of the border, Macklem and Powell decided to do what they do best – nothing. That is especially surprising in the U.S. where inflation is more robust and at “7%”. At least that is the reported rate, it is likely much higher. To date, Powell has not lifted a finger to fight inflation. Only history will tell if that is a grave policy mistake. We’re not fighting inflation on the Sunday Reads.
My latest column for MoneySense looks at the rate hike commentary and calls. What was more than interesting was the market reaction to Powell’s press conference. He certainly tripped over his tongue a few times.
Stocks initially rallied after the release of the rate hike and bond buying plans.
Then Powell attempted to string a few words together.
My MoneySense weekly also looks at the U.S. earnings season, will investors care about weakening earnings guidance from companies, and what usually happens after the crazy intraday swings we’ve been treated to?
When will U.S. stocks look attractive?
You must read my epic post on the expensive U.S. stock market, and U.S. tech stocks. If you read it yesterday, take another trip into that post. I’ve added more charts and commentary. Part of the additions were thanks to this wonderful post from John Mauldin. Don’t read this post at your own peril.
Banker on Wheels offers, what is fair value for the S&P 500?
More Sunday Reads
Let’s kick off with the ever-popular weekend reads on My Own Advisor. It’s the higher inflation leads to nowhere edition.
A Questrade you can buy ETFs for free.
On The Hub, this post looks at the liquidity of ETFs. Of course, the ETF liquidity is based on the underlying assets of the ETF, not the number of shares bought and sold for the specific ETF.
Ever wonder who makes your ETFs and how they stay on track?
Jonathan Chevreau, for Retired Money on MoneySense, looked that the all-weather portfolio. Is the all-weather portfolio the answer to a shortage of safe investments?
I offered up some models in the advanced couch potato section for MoneySense. The all-weather models certainly held up better than the market and even the traditional 60/40 balanced portfolio during the COVID correction in 2020.
Also on the retirement front, Fritz at The Retirement Manifesto is revisiting his drawdown strategy after 3 years in retirement. From that post:
We have increased our stock exposure from 48% to 57%, which is in line with what we were targeting. We took advantage of the “COVID Correction” to buy during the bear market, with our biggest move into equities coming on March 23, 2020. The S&P 500 hit 2,237 that day, which represented the low point in the market (as I write these words on 1/25/22, the S&P500 is at 4,348. In spite of the ~9% downturn YTD, I’m still up 94% from the date I made that last major purchase, confirming the value of rebalancing in a down market).
Got bonds?
On the risk management front, fiPhysician asks – do you need bonds in your portfolio?
On Tawcan, Bob offers his 2021 goals and resolutions wrap post. That covers personal and financial goals. Goal setting and goal achieving is important on both counts.
Who wants to be a millionaire?
On Maple Money, Tom shows us Canadians how to become a millionaire.
On Million Dollar Journey, a look at their TD e-series RESP portfolio.
A no-brainer for Canadians who want a managed RESP portfolio is that offering from Justwealth. They have low fees and adjust the risk level along the way by way of target date funds. I also offered how to use the asset allocation ETFs for your RESP.
Preet Banerjee asks, can you time the stock markets?
In that video, Preet suggests that you can try your luck on a market timing simulator. Give that a go. You can leave your results in the comment section. I think I’ll just let the stocks run and be the ‘winner’ as I know the ending 😉
Retire, like, waaaaaaaaay richer
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John is no index/etf fan …. thinks he has a fool-proof strategy — ” With where we are today, index fund returns will likely not be very good. Rifle shots are the key.” — and “I personally prefer strategies that don’t need the market to behave a certain way.” — Mauldin
Do you subscribe to this approach, or are you still on board with Buffet (buy the S&P 500 and you are buying America …. continue to invest and stop reading the scary headlines)?
Hi Steve, I am still on board with a sensible balanced portfolio. But there’s no denying that the U.S. market is expensive and that returns are usually quite muted from times of over valuation.
That said, regular rebalancing can help move outrageous profits to areas of greater value (or safety). There are good mechanism within a good well balanced portfolio that is also rebalanced.
Given that I run our portfolios mostly based on individual stocks I am able to pay attention to valuation, stock by stock.
Canadians (in general) might get a great opportunity if our stocks continue to shine and the U.S. moves back into historical fair valuation range. That might be a wonderful time to fix any Canadian home bias. Ditto for Emerging Markets that might also offer greater value from today.
Dale