U.S. President elect, Donald Trump, has strongly suggested that he’d like to acquire Canada as the 51st State. It is ridiculous, but he is dead serious. And to get the ‘deal’ done he will wage economic war against Canada. He’s ruled out a military invasion, for now (see below). Also, Canada is in a per-capita recession. Against that backdrop Canadian stocks were up 21.5% in 2024, we’ve added another 1.4% in 2025. Oh, did I mention our Prime Minister announced his intention to resign and our ruling party is essentially powerless? We will negotiate with Trump without a sitting Parliament.
The thing is, the stock market has it right. As investors, we should ignore who is in power. On Seeking Alpha, a few days before the election results I offered – Democrats’ stock returns beat Republicans but it still doesnt’ matter who wins.

The economy is so much more powerful than any President. Now I hope I don’t have to eat those words. We are in uncharted American Imperialist territory here. Well at least in modern times. It has often been U.S. policy to be quite anti-Imperialist as the most powerful nation on earth.
More stars and stripes?
Here’s a very good post that summarizes the U.S. rise to global Superpower. A key chart shows U.S. acquisitions and purchases. The U.S. gained some territories after kicking Spain out of the Americas.

Are Canada, Greenland and the Panama Canal about to be added to the above table?
The MAGA hat trick?
Trump admitted he might use military force to ‘acquire’ Greenland and the Panama Canal. It’s not a big leap for Trump to wake up one day and change economic war against Canada to ‘war war’. Trump might say ‘you call that a hat trick up there in the 51st State right?’ Let’s check in with Governor Gretzky on that.
The good news is it would be illegal for the U.S. to invade Canada under the orders of Trump, the Commander in Chief. Military leaders swear an oath to the constitution, not to the Commander in Chief. The bad news is that Trump’s hiring policy is usually to find the most compliant person for the job. He’s likely to reshape the military (as promised).
The next 4 years might be a historic test to find out if words matter. That is, the words of Madison, Hamilton and Jay, the authors of the U.S. Constitution.
A Canadian home bias reminder
It is a clear demonstration of a Black Swan country-specific risk. The strongest nation on earth, our closest trading partner (and best friend) has turned on us, and wants to attack us. Outcomes could range from this all being Trump blowing real hard – to the U.S. military crossing our border. We don’t know.
And the Canada trade deficit is miniscule in comparison and the ‘deficit’ due to much-needed oil and gas being piped to the U.S. The truth on trade might be put in front of Trump. Does the truth matter in 2025? I don’t know. But we’re about to find out.

The Trump trade?
Ok, that’s bait and switch. There is no Trump trade. A sensible investor is ready for most anything with some form of a balanced portfolio. A few weeks ago we mentioned the Trump effect with Hello 2025 – investing in the zero visibility age.
You would think that the traditional use of bonds will be the perfect hedge for Canadian stocks if the TSX Composite pulls a tariff tantrum. Bonds worked as a stock market hedge in every recession. They just might not work if inflation is also causing problems.
But if inflation is raging there’s a good chance your Canadian oil and gas stocks are moving higher and providing a real nice hedge, just as they did in 2021 and 2022. And of course, your gold is coming to the rescue as well. We’re back to the new balanced portfolio. If the Abrams tanks come rumbling across the Windsor Bridge, you’ll be glad to have enough cash, bonds and gold 😉 and other defensive assets.
That said, it’s hard to see inflation surging if Canada moves into a real recession.
And of course, the best hedge might be to hold the stocks and stock market ETFs of the conquering nation. U.S.A.! U.S.A.!!! You’ll get an additional boost as our Loonie sinks to 50 cents on The Dollar.
The best Canadian stock portfolio?
I’ve recently updated the returns for the Canadian Wide Moat Portfolio. Beating the market with much less volatility. What’s not to like. I can find no better model for risk-adjusted returns. On the ETF front look to BMO’s Low Volatility ETF – ZLB.TO.
A more defensive portfolio might be a good place to be if the greater risks do surface in 2025 and beyond. Here’s a look at consumer staples …
Global ETF Portfolios
Remember, with a global portfolio you often hold ample U.S. and International stocks. You can select your own risk level.
I have updated the total returns for …
Canadian asset allocation ETFs
You’ll find the ETF portfolio return update post in that build your own ETF page.
CAPE Kicks Off The Sunday Reads
At Findependence Hub Noah Soloman suggests that with respect to stock markets you should be the house, not the chump. The post offers a very nice look at the importance of stock market valuations, once you move to a time period of several years to a decade.

For the record the U.S. stock market CAPE now sits just below 37. While I continue to hold some expensive growth-oriented U.S. stocks, I do pay attention to valuation. I trimmed many of the high growth U.S. stocks in my wife’s portfolio over the last few years. Berkshire Hathaway is her largest holding. Second place is not even close. Lowe’s is in the 2 slot; the stock providing nice market-beating returns while continuing to be available at sensible valuations. In my RRSP portfolio I continue to create homemade Apple (AAPL) dividends. The proceeds moved to cash and bonds.
In my RRSP I’ve built up a nice position in iShares U.S. Quality XDU.TO. The valuation was quite attractive. The sector arrangement more defensive. You might look to an SCHD, VDY or pure value ETFs in U.S. Dollars.
Not advice, but I like the idea of a mix of market (expensive but growth-oriented) combined with a value basket, whether that be individual stocks or ETFs.
I invested through and remember the lost decade for U.S. stocks.
The week in review at Dividend Hawk shows that we shared (two straws) in the Pepsi dividends. We also both hold my favourite Canadian oil and gas stock – Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ). And on the Canadian banking front …
The Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) enters into an agreement to transfer banking operations in Colombia, Costa Rica and Panama; BNS announced it has entered into an agreement to transfer banking operations of its Colombia, Costa Rica, and Panama businesses to Davivienda in exchange for an ~20% stake in the combined banking operations.
The value of Purpose in retirement
At The Retirement Manifesto Fritz reviews The Purpose Code.
“For most people, purpose has become a kind of indecipherable code, sealing away true fulfillment and lasting happiness. But the purpose code is one that can be cracked. And anyone can do it. This book will show you how.”
While solving the money issue / financial security will be the key topic for Retirement Club, building the Life Plan will also get some needed attention, and that life plan includes a healthy serving of purpose.
If you’d like a copy of the outline for Retirement Club (for Canadians) please use that Contact Form on this page.
At Banker on Wheels we have the bubble watch and a look at the small cap value ‘debate’. In this post, another framing of valuation (forward PE ratio) and returns in a dot plot format

Also in the mix, dividends are a feature and nothing more.
Yup, I like to refer to dividends as a divining rod, they can help us find certain kinds of companies. While dividends can be a good sign and make us feel good, they don’t create value by way of the physical dividend payments. See ex-dividend day 😉
Bob at Tawcan is looking ahead to 2025 and work-life balance.
A spousal RRSP reminder …
Join Cut The Crap Investing
You can follow this blog, it’s free. Newsletters, plus other free content and ‘ideas’ will be delivered to your email inbox. Enter your email in the subscribe area, or ‘join us today’ on the home page. And check out Retirement Club too.
ETFs / Stock Portfolios / Retirement Strategies / Wealth Creation
Join the Retirement Club waitlist
Retirement Club will start this week. It is a series of monthly Zoom calls, monthly newsletters, retirement portfolio updates, a resource hub and more. Use the Contact Form to send me an email and I will forward the Retirement Club outline.
The first group sets sail and is fully subscribed. When you contact me (Dale) I will put you on the wait list for Retirement Club 2. I will also send you updates on the timing, and tidbits from the current Retirement Group sessions.
Thanks Partners
Earn a break on fees by way of many of these partnership links.
CANADA’S TOP-RANKED DISCOUNT BROKERAGE
Cut the Crap Investing readers can earn a break on fees at Questrade by way of that partnership link. At Questrade, you can buy ETFs for free. It’s a great place to build your stock portfolio.
Here’s Canada’s top-performing Robo Advisor, Justwealth. You can get advice, planning and low-fee ETF portfolios all at one shop.
Consider Justwealth for RESP accounts. That is THE option in Canada with target date funds that adjust the risk level as the student approaches the College or University start date.
OUR SAVINGS ACCOUNTS
Make your cash work a lot harder at EQ Bank. RRSP and TFSA account savings rates are at 2.0%. You’ll find some higher rates on GICs up to 4.00%. They also offer U.S. dollar accounts. We use EQ Bank, they have been awesome.
OUR CASHBACK CREDIT CARD
We make between $40 to $70 every month! And that’s on everyday spending. There are no fees with …
The Tangerine Cash Back Credit Card
For December we received $52.46 in cash. You can select 3 categories for 2% cash back. The rest pays at 0.50%.
That cash went into my TFSA account to buy some bitcoin and chips / CHPS.TO, ha.
While I do not accept monies for feature blog posts please click here on the mission and ‘how I might get paid’ disclosures. Affiliate partnerships help me (try to) pay the bills for this site. But they don’t, ha. That will allow me to keep this site free of ads and easy to read.
Hi there. Im interested in the retirement club form you mentioned.
Thanks
Patrick
Thanks Patrick, I have forwarded the Retirement Club outline to you.
Dale
Hi Dale,
Now 2025, and nothing much has changed for us in retirement.
Mandated withdrawals every year from the RRIF accounts, all invested in ZBAL. Near half the withdrawal goes to government taxes, the rest is held back for the following year’s TFSA’s.
Add the maximum each year to XDG in the TFSA’s.
In the larger than combined registered accounts is our non-registered account. We were able to re-invest from a combined savings and dividends received into the individual all-Canadian dividend equity portfolio to enable us to have an income increase of 11.5% for 2024. That’s real cash. Exact same figure as for 2023. I never received a wage increase of anywhere close to that figure in my former work life twenty years ago. In fact many years I had to accept wage increases that were below the inflation rate at the time. Phooey on that. I love being retired and setting my own agenda.
Thanks for sharing. And so glad to read your retirement is more than going well. Markets have certainly provided a gift to retirees for the last 17 years or so. No major corrections really, as the COVID correction was put out of its misery in quick fashion (that’s not usually the case with recessions of course).
I’m a big fan of the asset allocation ETFs as you know, and the iShares Quality Dividend ETFs. I’m more than happy with our U.S. XDU.TO. And I see your Global XDG has a very attractive PE ratio – that is important.
Keep us posted if you can.
Dale