If you’re not living under a rock, or in a cabin in the mountains with no electricity, you’re likely aware that Donald Trump returns to the White House on Monday January 20th. The world will likely change drastically on the economic and geopolitical fronts. The thing is, we don’t know how things will change. No one has any idea if Trump threats will become policy. On the economic front Trump is promising a massive trade war with widespread 25% tariffs on most everyone and everything. On the geopolitical front, he’s suggesting that he will be tough on the global ‘bad guys’. As investors, these are all events that we should ignore; but it’s certainly tough to ignore as the world changes on Monday.

A recent post offered: Hello 2025 – investing in the zero visibility age.
Trump tax cuts and looser regulations will battle with inflationary tariffs and deportations. Add in crippling U.S. debts and deficits. The bond market has been moving rates higher. The stock market (other than the magnificent tech) is moving lower over the last month. Both stocks and bonds are repricing Trump. But Trump is like a box of chocolates – you don’t know you will get.
Last week, U.S. stocks threw a dart and went up 3.7%. Canadian and international stocks said wait up ex trade partner and gained almost 2%. Bitcoin is up about 8% as we will have the first crypto President. Caught in the tariff -crosshairs Canadian oil and gas stocks were down 2.5%, while U.S. “drill baby drill” stocks were up 4.7%. Oddly enough though, Canadian pipeline stocks had a good pre-inauguration week.
Perhaps that’s because Canada launched a pre-tariff Polar Vortex strike, with frigid temperatures invading most every State. They will need a lot of Canadian oil and gas to heat their homes, and the White House. It will be ‘so cold’ they’ve moved the inauguration indoors. Wimps 😉 It puts a new spin on Cold War.
Polar Vortex opening salvo

If this was happening in the State of Canada and we were ‘inaugerating’ our new governor in Ottawa, we’d be having BBQ’s and hottubs and bouncy castles in the streets. Most everyone would have a cold Molson in hand.
Clarity on manic Monday?
It’s cold and calcuating and dowright cheeky. Here’s what my fellow Scarberian has to say …

On Monday we’ll find out if the Polar Vortex strategy was successful in gaining a tariff exemption for Canadian oil and gas.
In other news American company Hershey fired back with a Blossom ban.
We’ll get more clarity on Monday and Tuesday, on many fronts. We’ll see the first Trump moves. And all nervous Canadian kidding aside, this is all serious stuff. Last week’s Sunday Reads’ headline – Investing in Canadian stocks as Canada comes under attack.
Our big bro to the South can put the boots to Canada making our current recession (per capita) much worse. National Bank suggested …
That’s worse than typical recession territory.
The good news is that the Trump ‘policy’ is bad for everyone. It’s quite likely that the markets and Americans will shout it down if enacted in a meaningful way. But again, we are dealing with a very unpredictable human about to be in charge of the nuclear warhead codes, military and tariff war rates. No one knows …
Economists exist to make astrologists look good.
As investors we should always be ready for anything, even a Trump return to The White House. Let’s hope he has a busy first week, gets bored and goes back to golfing at The Mar-a-Lago Club, like the last time.

And maybe the Trump administration will quickly realize that there is no trade deficit …

More Sunday Reads
At Tawcan, Bob looks at how much we might need to retire? Bob runs some tools and simulations to get an estimate of his ‘magic number’.
How much do you need to retire will be a starting point as Retirement Club kicks off this week with Zoom call number 1. We’re fully subscribed, but you can use the Contact Form to send a request – I will forward you the Retirement Club outline and will put you on the list for Retirement Club2, to set sail in March or April.
At Findependence Hub, are tech valuations stretched?
And more on the retirement path and equities, Fritz at the Retirement Manifesto asks – What if stocks only rise 3%? From Goldman Sachs …
“The S&P 500 will return just 3% a year for the next decade and 1% after adjusting for inflation.”
Valuations suggest that is where the returns will likely land for U.S. stocks in a best case scenario over the next decade. I’ve been on to this market history for quite some time. On Seeking Alpha I suggested that an American investor with a massive home bias might consider de-risking greatly and moving to a very cash and bond-heavy allocation. Not advice, but an idea for consideration.
Remove stock market risk
Remove sequence risk with markets at extreme valuations.
After removing stock market sequence risk, the strategy then involves an equity glide path, where a retiree would increase equities/growth over time, finding value when value returns to the markets. It’s dollar cost averaging for retirees. For example, a retiree might de-risk to 30% equities and move to 60% to 70% equities over a 10 or 15 year period. It’s a heads you win, tales you don’t lose strategy.
And of course, another idea is to add a value tilt to your U.S. holdings and manage the U.S. home bias. Create a global balanced portfolio that includes bonds, cash and gold.
Banker on Wheels also looks at managing your portfolio through downturns. BoW also shared the U.S. Dollar vs other currencies in 2024.
Canadian followers of this blog who are heading south this winter – won’t let the Canadian Dollar stop them at the border. We should hedge our lifestyle and protect against a weak currency. Here’s the last 6 months. We’re at 69 cents.

As always we’ll check in on the weekly events for Dividend Hawk’s portfolio.
GenYMoney offers her 2025 personal finance resolutions.
ETF and stock portfolio updates
Here are some recent posts with total return performance updates.
Canadian asset allocation ETFs.
Build your own global ETF portfolio.
The Canadian Wide Moat Portfolio.
Rates are moving back up again. Check out the GIC rates at EQ Bank.
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I don’t think it’s odd that Enbridge did well this past week. It has the largest pipeline infrastructure in North America with oil and gas at 50% each. Who is going to supply all the energy for AI data centers and cyber currency mining as Trump and crony buddies are such big proponents? Takes a long time to build nuclear plants and ENB is right there and ready. Also LNG infrastructure freeze by Biden on the Gulf Coast will be gone and ENB has gone big on that already. Smart. Largest holding in my portfolio for the above reasons.
Hi Barrry, they need our energy in all forms. But Canada should obviously get ready and open up new markets. There’s no telling what he’s up to. Thanks for your comment, as always.
Dale
Woodfibre in Squamish, BC should be finished soon – LNG exports to Asia.
Hi Dale,
At least I got one thing right. We only have an allocation of all pipelines to the Canadian Energy Sector which represents something like 16% of our non-registered portfolio. Offloaded our oil producers and drillers from this portfolio starting in 2013 with the last one to be sold in 2015. That was a tough time with quite a number of dividend cuts then among that industry.
No Canadian portfolio changes here with Trump’s threats of possible tariffs. With a friend like the U.S. who needs enemies. In retirement, Canadian listed businesses get most our money from a combination of savings and dividends.
Thanks for the comment. I put producers on the table in late 2020, or some 400% ago 🙂 But it is certainly a cyclical sector and we have to be ready for volatility. I like the big 4 of CNQ, SU, IMO and Tourmaline.
Glad you’re ready for anything and staying the course. That’s the way it should be 🙂
Dale
What a great and entertaining post this morning. Great way to start my Sunday!
Thanks Marilyn, it was fun to write.
Dale